Contact Info
Department of Applied Mathematics
University of Waterloo
Waterloo, Ontario
Canada N2L 3G1
Phone: 519-888-4567, ext. 32700
Fax: 519-746-4319
PDF files require Adobe Acrobat Reader
MC 6486
Brendon Phillips | Applied Math, University of Waterloo
Signals of Critical Transitions in Coupled Belief-Behaviour Systems
The overwhelming success of vaccination campaigns over the last few decades has ironically given rise to a new devastating disease, called antivaccination.
The previous low prevalence of preventable diseases has led some people to ignore health risks, instead focusing on all the imagined dangers of vaccination. Falling vaccination rates, driven by social interaction, then leave a greater proportion of the population susceptible to infection. These are perfect conditions for an epidemic, as seen by the recent resurgences of measles, mumps, whooping cough, polio, rubella and others illnesses. Also of interest are the effects of "echo chambers", occurring when people of similar opinion form social bonds. This create insular groups where interaction reinforces convictions, rather than challenging them.
Viewing disease spread as a dynamical system, epidemics represent critical transitions. Sometimes, these shifts are preceded (or accompanied) by easily recognisable characteristic behaviours, called early warning signals. Investigating and identifying a class of these signals is crucial to mitigating the global economic and infrastructural damage caused by disease resurgence. Surprisingly, to date, there has been no research done on finding early warning signals in coupled systems.
Simulation of a disease process has shown that critical transitions were preceded by sharp increases in the mutual dependence of physical and social dynamics. Also, both spatial autocorrelation and the number of connected graph components peak at the transition point, with spatial autocorrelation giving false warning signals under certain conditions.
In this talk, we will further discuss these results and the construction of model, as well as the measurements chosen and the reliability of the resulting signals.
Contact Info
Department of Applied Mathematics
University of Waterloo
Waterloo, Ontario
Canada N2L 3G1
Phone: 519-888-4567, ext. 32700
Fax: 519-746-4319
PDF files require Adobe Acrobat Reader
The University of Waterloo acknowledges that much of our work takes place on the traditional territory of the Neutral, Anishinaabeg and Haudenosaunee peoples. Our main campus is situated on the Haldimand Tract, the land granted to the Six Nations that includes six miles on each side of the Grand River. Our active work toward reconciliation takes place across our campuses through research, learning, teaching, and community building, and is co-ordinated within the Office of Indigenous Relations.