@article{34, keywords = {climate policy, solar geoengineering}, author = {Garth Heutel and Juan Moreno-Cruz and Soheil Shayegh}, title = {Solar geoengineering, uncertainty, and the price of carbon}, abstract = {
We study optimal climate policy when climate tipping points and solar geoengineering are present.
Solar geoengineering reduces temperatures without reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Climate tipping
points are irreversible and uncertain events that cause large damages. We analyze three different rules
related to the availability of solar geoengineering: a ban, using solar geoengineering as insurance against
the risk of tipping points, or using solar geoengineering only as remediation in the aftermath of a tipping
point. We model three distinct types of tipping points: two that alter the climate system and one that
yields a direct economic cost. Using an analytic model, we find that an optimal policy, which minimizes
expected losses from the tipping point, includes both emissions reductions and solar geoengineering
from the onset. Using a numerical simulation model, we quantify optimal policy and various outcomes
under the alternative scenarios. The presence of tipping points leads to more mitigation and more solar
geoengineering use and lower temperatures.