Skip to main content

Considering Non-stationary Loading Due to Climate Change in the Reliability Analysis of Structures

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Proceedings of the Canadian Society of Civil Engineering Annual Conference 2021 (CSCE 2021)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering ((LNCE,volume 244))

Included in the following conference series:

  • 869 Accesses

Abstract

Climate change is recognized as one of the leading threats to civil infrastructure, costing billions of dollars each year. Recent observations of a global temperature increase and thawing glaciers, accompanied by scientific investigations, provide clear evidence the climate is changing. These changes can lead to increases in the frequency and severity of climatic stressing events on infrastructure. As a result, this infrastructure might experience severe load levels beyond those for which it was designed. This study aims to demonstrate several possible approaches for considering non-stationary (e.g., increasing) load effects in the reliability analysis of structures. The presented approaches may serve as useful practical tools for aiding code-writers and decision-makers to assess the effects of changes in climatic stressors on the failure risk and life cycle cost associated with new and existing civil infrastructure.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Cannon A, Jeong D I, Zhang X, Zwiers FW (2020) Climate-resilient buildings and core public infrastructure: an assessment of the impact of climate change on climatic design data in Canada

    Google Scholar 

  2. CSA (2007) Calibration Report For CAN/CSA-S6-06 Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code

    Google Scholar 

  3. CSA Group (2019) CSA S6:19, Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code. Canadian Standards Association (CSA), Mississauga

    Google Scholar 

  4. Kupper LL (1971) Probability, statistics, and decision for civil engineers. Technometrics 13(1):211–211. https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1971.10488770

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Li Q, Wang C, Ellingwood BR (2015) Time-dependent reliability of aging structures in the presence of non-stationary loads and degradation. Struct Saf 52(PA):132–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2014.10.003

  6. Nowak AS, Grouni HN (1994) Calibration of the Ontario highway bridge design code 1991 edition. Can J Civ Eng 21(1):25–35. https://doi.org/10.1139/l94-003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Shayanfar MA, Barkhordari MA, Barkhori M, Barkhori M (2018) An adaptive directional importance sampling method for structural reliability analysis. Struct Saf 70:14–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2017.07.006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-KK, Tignor MMBB, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (2014) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis working group I contribution to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. intergovernmental panel on climate change, vol 9781107057. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324

  9. van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K, Hurtt GC et al. (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change 109(1):5–31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Mohammad Barkhori .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2022 Canadian Society for Civil Engineering

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Barkhori, M., Walbridge, S. (2022). Considering Non-stationary Loading Due to Climate Change in the Reliability Analysis of Structures. In: Walbridge, S., et al. Proceedings of the Canadian Society of Civil Engineering Annual Conference 2021. CSCE 2021. Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering, vol 244. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-0656-5_24

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-0656-5_24

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore

  • Print ISBN: 978-981-19-0655-8

  • Online ISBN: 978-981-19-0656-5

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics