# Events - November 2019

Friday, November 29, 2019 — 10:30 AM EST

## Department seminar by Yang Lu, University of Paris 13

#### Noncausal Affine Processes with Applications to Derivative Pricing

Linear factor models, where the factors are affine processes, play a key role in Finance, since they allow for quasi-closed form expressions of the term structure of risks. We introduce the class of noncausal affine linear factor models by considering factors that are affine in reverse time. These models are especially relevant for pricing sequences of speculative bubbles. We show that they feature much more complicated non affine dynamics in calendar time, while still providing (quasi) closed form term structures and derivative pricing formulas. The framework is illustrated with zero-coupon bond and European call option pricing examples.

Thursday, November 28, 2019 — 4:00 PM EST

## Department seminar by Shihao Yang, Georgia Institute of Technology

#### Bayesian inference of dynamic systems via constrained Gaussian processes

Ordinary differential equations are an important tool for modeling behaviors in science, such as gene regulation, epidemics, etc.  An important statistical problem is to infer and characterize the uncertainty of parameters that govern the equations.  We present a fast Bayesian inference method using constrained Gaussian processes, such that the derivatives of the Gaussian process must satisfy the dynamics of the differential equations.  Our method completely avoids the numerical solver and is thus practically fast to compute. Our construction is cleanly embedded in a rigorous Bayesian framework, and is demonstrated to yield fast and reliable inference in a variety of practical scenarios.

Friday, November 22, 2019 — 10:30 AM EST

## Department seminar by Mathieu Boudreault, Université du Québec à Montréal

#### Do Jumps Matter in the Long Run? A Tale of Two Horizons

Economic scenario generators (ESGs) for equities are important components of the valuation and risk management process of life insurance and pension plans. As the resulting liabilities are very long-lived, it is a desired feature of an ESG to replicate equity returns over such horizons. However, the short-term performance of the assets backing these liabilities may also trigger significant losses and in turn, affect the financial stability of the insurer or plan. For example, a line of GLWBs with frequent withdrawals may trigger losses when subaccounts suddenly lose after a stock market crash or pension contributions may also need to be revised after a long-lasting economic slump. Therefore, the ESG must replicate both short- and long-term stock price dynamics in a consistent manner, which is a critical problem in actuarial finance. Popular features of financial models include stochastic volatility and jumps, and as such, we would like to investigate how these features matter for typical long-term actuarial applications.

### November 2019

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