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Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Wednesday, January 30, 2019 — 4:00 PM EST

If Journals Embraced Conditional Equivalence Testing, Would Research be Better?

Motivated by recent concerns with the reproducibility and reliability of scientific research, we introduce a publication policy that incorporates "conditional equivalence testing" (CET), a two-stage testing scheme in which standard null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is followed conditionally by testing for equivalence. We explain how such a policy could address issues of publication bias, and investigate similarities with a Bayesian approach.  We then develop a novel optimality model that, given current incentives to publish, predicts a researcher's most rational use of resources. Using this model, we are able to determine whether a given policy, such as our CET policy, can incentivize more reliable and reproducible research.

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