University COVID-19 update

The University of Waterloo is constantly updating our most Frequently Asked Questions.

Questions about buildings and services? Visit the list of Modified Services.

Please note: The University of Waterloo is closed for all events until further notice.

Department seminar by Ping Yan,Export this event to calendar

Thursday, June 28, 2012 — 3:00 PM EDT

 "Some stochastic processes as infectious disease models"

This presentation attempts to synthesize stochastic and deterministic disease transmission models and put them in statistical context, such as parameter estimation and prediction. It starts with brief reviews of the univariate and bi-variate birth-death Markov processes used as SIS and SIR models (Allen, 2011, second edition) and compare them against their deterministic counterparts. When the population is finite, the deterministic models are ordinary differential equation models that approximate the stochastic mean values of the birth-death processes, as an extreme case of the moment closure framework by setting the second order moments to zero. As the population size approaches infinity, the deterministic models can be also regarded as approximations to the ODE models for the stochastic mean values. Continuing, the presentation discusses the contexts under which the stochastic models do and do not “average out” to their deterministic counterparts in infinitely large populations. These further lead to the statistical implication for estimating parameters in disease models, where data, even in the perfect situation of continuous and complete observation, tend to arise from a single realization of the sample paths of an inherently stochastic event. The final part of the presentation will discuss the notion of “heterogeneity” in disease models and the proposal of formulating such a concept in terms of stochastic orders, along with some application results from recent publications in the study of the initial growth and evaluation of effectives of certain infectious disease control measures.

Location 
M3 - Mathematics 3
3127
200 University Avenue West

Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1
Canada

S M T W T F S
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
1
2
3
4
5
  1. 2021 (12)
    1. May (1)
    2. April (5)
    3. March (4)
    4. February (2)
  2. 2020 (72)
    1. December (3)
    2. November (13)
    3. October (16)
    4. September (7)
    5. August (5)
    6. July (3)
    7. June (2)
    8. May (1)
    9. March (4)
    10. February (4)
    11. January (14)
  3. 2019 (65)
    1. December (3)
    2. November (8)
    3. October (8)
    4. September (4)
    5. August (2)
    6. July (2)
    7. June (2)
    8. May (6)
    9. April (7)
    10. March (6)
    11. February (4)
    12. January (13)
  4. 2018 (44)
  5. 2017 (55)
  6. 2016 (44)
  7. 2015 (38)
  8. 2014 (44)
  9. 2013 (46)
  10. 2012 (44)