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Department seminar by Ping Yan, Adjunct Professor, Department of Statistics and Actuarial ScienceExport this event to calendar

Thursday, November 17, 2016 — 4:00 PM EST

Application of frailty model to evaluate intervention effectiveness against infectious disease transmission when implemented with heterogeneity

For an intervention against the spread of communicable diseases, when individuals fully comply with the intervention and the exposure to the infectious agent is comparable across all individuals, this is the idealized situation. Some level of non-compliance is likely where an intervention to be widely implemented, the focus is on a more accurate view of its effects population-wide. A frailty model is applied. Numerical results based on assumed structure (with or without latent period), differently assumed distributions for the latent and infectious periods, as well as different levels for R0 are presented. The important finding is that, under the influence of between-individual heterogeneity, the value of the controlled reproduction number along with its derived quantities with epidemiologic relevance, are invariant of time scale and robust to the underlying model assumptions. For instance, for an intervention that is presumably effective to control the outbreak at a given threshold value, the presence of mild heterogeneity in compliance could result in an outbreak with final size 35% if R0 = 3 and 19% if R0 = 2, regardless of the lengths of the latent and infectious periods and little effected by model assumptions.

Location 
M3 - Mathematics 3
3127

,
Canada
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