@article {29,
	title = {Predicting the Mean and Variance of Transit Segment and Route Travel Times},
	journal = {Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board},
	volume = {2217},
	year = {2011},
	pages = {30-37},
	abstract = {<p>Travel\&nbsp;time\&nbsp;characteristics\&nbsp;of transit\&nbsp;vehicles such as\&nbsp;mean and\&nbsp;standard deviation (SD) are of critical importance in both\&nbsp;transit\&nbsp;planning and operations.\&nbsp;Predicting\&nbsp;these measures not only helps\&nbsp;transitagencies schedule and allocate resources more accurately but also facilitates the development of more robust mode choice and departure\&nbsp;time\&nbsp;models. Data from automatic vehicle locations and automatic passenger counting, as well as outputs from a\&nbsp;travel\&nbsp;forecasting model, were used in presenting a methodology to\&nbsp;predict the mean and the SD of travel\&nbsp;times\&nbsp;for proposed\&nbsp;transit\&nbsp;routes. Models were generated in two ways. First,\&nbsp;mean and SD of travel\&nbsp;time\&nbsp;were estimated by regressing observed values against roadway and operational characteristics. The SD was estimated between origins and destinations by considering the SDs of individual\&nbsp;segments and the correlation between segments. Advantages and disadvantages of these two\&nbsp;methods\&nbsp;were evaluated. The models were calibrated and validated with automatic vehicle location data from the bus system serving the Regional Municipality of Waterloo in Ontario, Canada.</p>
},
	doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2217-04},
	url = {http://trrjournalonline.trb.org/doi/abs/10.3141/2217-04},
	author = {Moghaddam, Soroush Salek and Noroozi, Reza and Casello, Jeffrey M. and Hellinga, Bruce}
}
