@article {52,
	title = {Quantifying the Impact of Transit Reliability on User Costs},
	journal = {Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board},
	year = {2009},
	month = {01/2009},
	pages = {136-141},
	abstract = {<p>Transportation modeling frameworks assume that travelers are economically rational; that is, they choose the lowest-cost\&nbsp;alternative to complete a desired trip. The\&nbsp;reliability\&nbsp;of travel time is of critical importance to travelers. The ability to\&nbsp;quantify\&nbsp;reliability\&nbsp;allows planners to estimate more accurately how system performance influences local travel behavior and to evaluate more appropriately potential investments in the transportation system infrastructure. This paper presents a methodology that makes\&nbsp;use\&nbsp;of automatic vehicle location data from the regional municipality of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, to estimate the\&nbsp;reliability of transitservice. On the basis of these data,\&nbsp;the impacts of\&nbsp;unreliable service on generalized\&nbsp;transit\&nbsp;user\&nbsp;costs are quantified by use\&nbsp;of a simulation model of bus arrivals and passengers\&$\#$39; desired arrival times. It is shown that the increasing\&nbsp;reliability\&nbsp;of arrivals at a station can decrease\&nbsp;transit\&nbsp;users\&$\#$39; generalized\&nbsp;costs\&nbsp;significantly and by as much as 15\% in a reasonably\&nbsp;reliable\&nbsp;network. It is further posited that the inclusion of uncertainty in the calculation of generalized\&nbsp;costs\&nbsp;may provide better estimates of mode splits in travel forecasting models. A description of future applications of the model concludes the paper.</p>
},
	keywords = {Arrivals and departures, Automatic vehicle location, Bus transit, Simulation, Travel behaviour, Travel time},
	issn = {0361-1981},
	doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2112-17},
	url = {http://trrjournalonline.trb.org/doi/abs/10.3141/2112-17},
	author = {Casello, Jeffrey M. and Nour, Akram and Hellinga, Bruce}
}
