In an era defined by "post-normal times", where our traditional social, political, and economic structures are strained or no longer fit for purpose, cities are finding that standard approaches to planning are no longer enough. To bridge this gap, cities are experimenting in using future foresight techniques to transform the collective imagination of diverse stakeholders into concrete, transformative actions that navigate the complexities of an uncertain future.
We recently co-hosted the Resilient Urban Futures Workshop, a fantastic two-day gathering at Conrad Grebel University College focused on the role of future foresight in municipal climate action. The session brought together 14 representatives from across our five Local Futures communities to explore how communities can strengthen long-term climate planning using future-foresight techniques and tools.
Session Speakers
- Elizabeth Cook - Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, and Environmental Science, Sustainability at Barnard College-Columbia University
- Helen Kerr - KerrSmith Design and OCAD University
- Lauren Withycombe Keeler - School for the Future of Innovation in Society, Arizona State University
- (Moderator) Marta Berbés-Blázquez - School of Environment, Resources, and Sustainability, University of Waterloo
As part of the workshop, we co-hosted a public event in-person and online in the Grebel Gallery (see recording below), inviting distinguished foresight experts to share about their work across three distinct pillars of “futuring”: forecasting (identifying the most probable future), exploratory futures (preparing for low-probability, high-impact "shocks"), and transformative futures (intervening in the present to create a desired destination).
Here are five key insights from the discussion:
1. Breaking Down Departmental Silos
One of the most immediate benefits of foresight is its ability to dissolve internal barriers. By bringing diverse municipal "verticals"—such as public works, neighborhood services, and health—into the same room, cities can identify shared assets and create new pathways for resource sharing. This collaboration reveals how different departments think about chronic challenges, allowing them to better prepare for acute stressors like heatwaves or pandemics.
2. Correcting "Business-as-Usual" Inequities
Traditional forecasting often projects a future that reinforces existing social and environmental inequities. Transformative foresight allows cities to model intentional, positive futures instead. For example, co-produced scenarios in New York City demonstrated that stakeholder-led visions could reduce heat by 108% and flooding by 55% in environmental justice communities—outcomes traditional models might miss.
3. The "Plane Analogy" for Strategic Change
A common misconception is that transformation requires stepping outside administrative mandates. However, experts used a "plane analogy": if a plane changes its course by just a few degrees at takeoff, it ends up in a completely different city. Foresight allows leaders to slightly "turn the nose" of current mandates today so that, over 25 years, the city reaches a fundamentally better destination.
4. Navigating "Future Shocks" through Play
Because the future often brings events we didn't ask for—like COVID-19—exploratory foresight uses collaborative storytelling games and simulations. These "future shock" exercises help municipalities inventory their assets and narrate how they would respond to and recover from unexpected disruptions, turning abstract risks into actionable preparedness.
5. Preserving "Identity of Place" During Transition
For cities facing massive shifts, such as the closure of major job producing industries, foresight is a tool for building community trust. By starting with the question, "What do you love about this place?", administrators can ensure that the core identity of a community is preserved even as the economy transitions. This moves resident engagement from being transactional to being a deeply meaningful process of co-creating a shared future.
Ultimately, foresight is not a one-off workshop; it is a practice that should be embedded within the very fabric of decision-making. It empowers cities and communities to not just wait for the future, but to build a resilient, equitable present. We look forward to continuing this work with our partners, exploring how the framework of the Sustainable Development Goals positions Canadian communities to achieve the prosperous and sustainable futures they desire.
The Resilient Urban Futures work is led by Dr. Marta Berbés-Blázquez, Assistant Professor in the School of Environment, Resources, and Sustainability at the University of Waterloo and Stephanie Cruz Maysonet, PhD Candidate in the School of Environment, Resources and Sustainability at the University of Waterloo. It is a partnership between our Local Futures project, the University of Waterloo, the Balsillie School of International Affairs, and the Waterloo Climate Institute. Funding for this work comes from a SSHRC Connection
The future is imaginary, but this imagination can be really powerful. And so while the reflex is to... lean towards the quantitative, there are opportunities... in the creative [and] in performance to open up the possibility space and help us mourn what is lost when we transition as well as celebrate what is possible.