SYDE 533 - Conflict Resolution (Fall Term)
PURPOSE: Conflict resolution is of significance to engineers because of the great importance of social and political influences in engineering decision making. For example, when designing a large scale engineering project such as a hydro-electric complex, the engineer must ensure that the undertaking is not only physically, environmentally, financially and economically feasible, but also socially and politically viable. In the past, many large engineering projects have been abandoned, drastically altered, or stalled due to improper assessment of social or political feasibility. For instance, the Garrison Diversion Unit is an immense planned irrigation project in the American state of North Dakota which could cause environmental damage by polluting rivers which flow into Canada. Political pressure by the Canadian government and environmental groups has now caused much of the proposed project to be cancelled, even though millions of dollars had already been spent. The purpose of SYDE 533 is to present techniques for systematically studying a conflict such as the Garrison dispute so that possible resolutions to the problem can be determined and sound decisions can be made.
Conflicts are virtually inevitable in situations where humans interact, either individually or else in groups. In addition to large-scale engineering projects, other examples of conflicts include nations which are at war with one another, patent disputes between multinational corporations, management and labour negotiations, and energy controversies. Therefore, SYDE 533 may be of interest to students and researchers who work in various fields.
COURSE OUTLINE: Attractive features of the conflict resolution techniques taught in the course are that they are relatively easy to use in practice and they yield valuable insights into the problem being studied. The topics covered in SYDE 533 are divided into the following two main groups:
(1) Conflict Resolution in Practice
- Introduction to conflict resolution and decision making
- Methods of application of techniques (normal, option, tableau and graph model forms)
- Games having misperceptions (called hypergames)
- Sensitivity analyses
- Evolution of a conflict
- Group decision and negotiation
- Various real world applications
(2) Conflict Resolution in Theory
- The graph model for conflict resolution
- Value systems, preference elicitation, strength of preference, attitudes and emotions
- Solution concepts, human behavior and mathematical relationships among them
- Coalition formation and analysis
(3) Related Topics
- Multiple criteria decision analysis
- Decision making under uncertainty
- Decision support systems
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM (DSS): The conflict resolution methodology has been programmed for use as a DSS which a student will be able to use when he or she analyzes an actual conflict of his or her choice for the term project.
PRE-REQUISITE COURSES: It is preferable, but not necessary, that students will have previously taken some mathematics courses at the university level. However, the theory behind the methods in conflict resolution is based upon set theory, logic, and some basic ideas from graph theory. The required mathematical topics will be reviewed in the course.
COURSE TEXT: "Interactive Decision Making: The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution", by Liping Fang, Keith W. Hipel and D. Marc Kilgour, published by Wiley, New York, 1993. Some material will also be used from the book "Conflict Analysis: Models and Resolution", by N.M. Fraser and K.W. Hipel, North Holland, New York, 1984, and from recent research papers.
GRADING: A course project, an examination, and assignments will account for 45%, 40% and 15%, respectively, of the final grade.
PEACE AND CONFLICT STUDIES (PACS): SYDE 533 can be taken as part of various academic PACS programs administered by Conrad Grebel University College.
ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMICS MINOR: SYDE 533 is an accredited course with this minor program based in the Department of Economics.
FACULTY OPTIONS: SYDE 533 can count as credit towards the Environmental Engineering, Management Sciences, Statistics, and Water Resources Options within the Faculty of Engineering at the University of Waterloo.
TECHNICAL ELECTIVE PACKAGE: Within the Department of Systems Design Engineering, SYDE 533 is part of the Societal and Environmental Systems technical elective package.
CREDITS: SYDE 533 can be taken for credit by undergraduate and Master’s students at the University of Waterloo. A related course, SYDE 730, is available for PhD and Master’s students.
GRADUATE RESEARCH: Master's and Doctoral research on conflict resolution and other related decision making techniques are being carried out within the Conflict Analysis Group in the Department of Systems Design Engineering. Details about current research opportunities are available upon request and at https://uwaterloo.ca/conflict-analysis-group/
INFORMATION: If you have any questions please contact the class instructor, Professor Keith W. Hipel, in the Department of Systems Design Engineering (Room DWE-2518B; 519 888 4567, extension 32830; kwhipel@uwaterloo.ca). Any University of Waterloo student is most welcome to take conflict resolution for credit or audit.
SYDE 631 - Time Series Modelling (Fall Term)
PURPOSE: The theory and practice of time series modelling are presented for systematically studying observations sampled over time from water resources, environmental, economical, energy and other kinds of systems. By understanding, for example, how inputs to a given system dynamically affect various outputs, better decisions can be made regarding the design and operation of the system.
COURSE OUTLINE: The rich variety of time series models that are defined, explained and illustrated in the course include ARMA, nonstationary ARIMA, long memory FARMA, seasonal ARIMA, deseasonalized, periodic, transfer function-noise (multiple inputs - single output), intervention and multivariate ARMA (multiple inputs - multiple outputs) models. Extensive hydrological, water quality, environmental, and other applications are given for clearly demonstrating how the various kinds of time series models can be systematically and conveniently fitted to real world data sets by following the identification, estimation and diagnostic check stages of model construction. Moreover, a major emphasis of the course is the use of exploratory data analysis graphs, intervention analysis, nonparametric trend tests and regression analysis in the detection and estimation of trends in environmental impact assessment studies. Other topics covered include time series analysis in decision making, estimating missing observations, simulation, the Hurst Phenomenon, forecasting experiments and causality.
COURSE TEXT: Time Series Modelling of Water Resources and Environmental Systems, by Keith W. Hipel and A. Ian McLeod, published by Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1994 (ISBN: 0 444 89270-2).
COURSE OVERHEADS: Please purchase a paper copy of the overheads from the Bookstore and kindly bring this material to every class so you can write your own additional notes directly on your paper copy.
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM (DSS): The McLeod-Hipel Time Series (MHTS) Package constitutes a flexible DSS for carrying out comprehensive data analysis studies in order to obtain meaningful statistical results upon which wise decisions can be made. Each student will be able to use the MHTS package in course assignments and a project consisting of data analyses of time series chosen from the field of interest of the student.
PRE-REQUISITE COURSE: At least one university course in probability and statistics.
GRADING: Course assignments, a project selected according to a given student’s interest, and a final examination will account for 10%, 30% and 60%, respectively, of the final grade.
CLASS TIME: Every Tuesday during the fall term from 1:30 p.m. to 4:30 pm.
MH TIME SERIES PACKAGE: Kindly refer to the website of Prof. A.I. McLeod at:
http://fisher.stats.uwo.ca/faculty/aim/epubs/mhts/default.htm
TIME SERIES DATA: A rich variety of time series data can be found at:
https://datamarket.com/data/list/?q=provider:tsdl or
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/type/data?HPA=1
OTHER STATISTICAL SOFTWARE: Other statistical software are available at:
https://uwaterloo.ca/arts-computing/help-and-support/software/statistics-software
INFORMATION: If you have any questions please contact the class instructor, Professor Keith W. Hipel, in the Department of Systems Design Engineering (Room DWE 2518B, extension 32830; email: kwhipel@uwaterloo.ca). Students are most welcome to take the course for credit or audit. Certain components of the courses will be tailored to meet the background and interests of the students.
