Q&A with the experts: Linda Mortsch on key findings for climate change in North America

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has released the second report for its sixth major assessment of the science of climate change; Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. This report is a key input for governments attending the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and informs international negotiations to address climate change. Linda Mortsch, Interdisciplinary Centre on Climate Change member, adjunct professor with the Faculty of Environment, and retired Senior Researcher with Environment and Climate Change Canada, is the lead author for the North American chapter. She discusses the chapter’s findings.

Why is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) important?

The IPCC was set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Programme to provide policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. In other words, it’s the international body for assessing the science related to climate change.  

The assessments are written by hundreds of leading scientists who volunteer their time and expertise, and then undergo multiple stages of review to ensure they are comprehensive, objective and transparent. Expert reviewers and governments are invited at different stages to comment on the scientific, technical and socio-economic assessment and the overall balance of the drafts. The review process (PDF) includes wide participation, with hundreds of reviewers critiquing the accuracy and completeness of the scientific assessment contained in the drafts. For example, the Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) is approved line-by-line, word by word, unanimously by 195 member countries. It’s quite a robust process through which the IPCC determines the state of knowledge on climate change. Again, this is important because the assessments provide a scientific basis for governments at all levels to develop climate related policies, and they underlie negotiations at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

You led the Chapter on North America, who made up the author team and what were some of your key findings?

There were 13 authors from across Mexico, USA, and Canada working on the North America chapter. This included myself from the University of Waterloo, Jackie Dawson from the University of Ottawa, and Sherilee Harper from the University of Alberta. Margot Hurlbert from the University of Regina had the unique role of review editor. These 13 authors collaborated and directed the chapter’s development with help from an additional 26 contributing authors providing support for specific topics.

Some of the key findings from our chapter included:

• Over the past 20 years, climate change impacts across North America have become more frequent, intense and affect more of the population.
• Climate change has negatively impacted human health and wellbeing in North America.
• North American food production is increasingly affected by climate change, with immediate impacts on the food and nutritional security of Indigenous Peoples.
• Climate change has impaired North American freshwater resources and reduced supply security.
• Extreme events and climate hazards are adversely affecting economic activities across North America and have disrupted supply-chain infrastructure and trade.
• North American cities and settlements have been affected by increasing severity and frequency of climate hazards and extreme events, which has contributed to, infrastructure damage, livelihood losses, damage to heritage resources, and safety concerns.
• Terrestrial, marine, and freshwater ecosystems are being profoundly altered by climate change across North America.
• Climate-driven changes are particularly pronounced within Arctic ecosystems and are unprecedented based on observations from multiple knowledge systems.
• Near- and long-term adaptation planning, implementation and coordination across business sectors and geographical jurisdictions supports equitable and effective climate solutions that move from incremental changes to transformational changes.
• Widespread, coordinated adaptation has the greatest potential to maintain and enhance the quality of life of Canadians. 

What can we learn from climate trends, climate change projections and perceptions?

Over the past 20 years, climate change impacts across North America have become more frequent, intense and affect more of the population. Despite scientific certainty, misinformation and politicization of climate change science has created polarization in public and policy domains in North America, particularly in the U.S. but also in Canada, affecting climate action and increasing risk.

Our chapter confirms that climate hazards are projected to intensify further across North America. This includes intensifying heat waves and wildfire activity, decline of sub-Arctic snowpack, glacial mass and sea ice, and rising sea levels that will lead to more severe flooding, erosion, debris flows, and ultimately loss of ecosystem function, life, and property. Health risks are projected to increase this century under all future emissions scenarios, but the magnitude and severity of impacts depends on the implementation and effectiveness of adaptation strategies, to which there are many. However, available adaptation options will be less effective or unable to protect human health under high-emission scenarios.

What are some effective strategies for adapting to climate change?

Self-determination for Indigenous Peoples is critical for effective adaptation. Throughout North America, Indigenous Peoples are actively addressing the compound impacts of climate change, and historical and ongoing forms of colonialism. Indigenous knowledge underpins successful understanding of, responses to, and governance of climate change risks. Western scientific practices and technology may not be sufficient in addressing future natural resource management challenges. Supporting Indigenous self-determination, recognizing Indigenous Peoples’ rights, and supporting Indigenous knowledge-based adaptation are critical to reducing climate change risks to achieve adaptation success.

As well, we need equitable, inclusive, and participatory approaches that integrate the projections about climate change into near term and long-term decision-making. Some ways this is happening is through government and private investments being directed to building early warning and rapid response systems, climate and ecological forecasting tools, and integrated climate scenario planning methods. Widespread adoption of these practices and tools for infrastructure planning, disaster risk reduction, ecosystem management, budgeting practices, insurance, and climate risk reporting supports planning for a future with more climate risks. In addition to this, there is a need for an increased capacity to support the equitable resolution of existing and emerging resource disputes (local to international), which will reduce climate impacts on livelihoods and improve the effectiveness of resource management.

Are there limits to our ability to adapt successfully to future change?

The limits that we face are the ones that we place on ourselves. Although adaptation across North America is increasing, action has been mostly gradual, incremental, and reactive. Current adaptation practices will be increasingly insufficient without coordination of efforts through equitable policy focused on modifying land use impacts, consumption patterns, economic activities, and emphasizing nature-based solutions. Transformational, long-term adaptation action that reduces risk and increases resilience can address rapidly escalating impacts in the mid to latter part of the 21st century, especially if coupled with moderate to high mitigation measures.

Do you have hope that we can address the climate crisis?

Sometimes I become impatient and want more urgency in action, but I also recognize that the path to address climate change and the transformational changes required don’t come easily or quickly. With complex issues such as climate change, one must remain optimistic and think long-term because that is what is required to find solutions and move towards action. I have been addressing/working on this issue since 1988. Looking back, we have made exceptional progress on the science, making people aware, and developing mitigation and adaptation solutions. Looking forward, I see how youth are vocally and assertively taking up the challenge and how Indigenous Peoples’ cultural ethic, knowledge, and leadership are directed at addressing climate change.  In communities, people ⁠— citizens, planners, land managers, engineers, researchers, ecologists, and Indigenous Peoples ⁠— are collaborating and co-creating solutions. They are wrestling with the challenge of implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions and together we can take those critical next steps to achieve our long-term goals.

Linda Mortsch has devoted much of her career to addressing climate change issues and facilitating adaptation planning and decision-making in water resources, coastal zones, wetland ecosystems and urban areas. She has expertise collaborating with stakeholders to assess impacts, vulnerability, and resilience, and initiate adaptation. Her 1992 to 1997 research project “Adapting to climate variability and change in the Great Lakes Basin” was one of the first to engage stakeholders and explore adaptation to climate change in Canada. Since 1989, Linda has played a role in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a co-recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. For the sixth assessment cycle, she was the Coordinating Lead Author for the North America chapter. Now retired from Environment and Climate Change Canada, Linda has an adjunct appointment in the Faculty of Environment at the University of Waterloo. She continues to undertake studies that support adaptation capacity building and help meet the challenges of moving from adaptation planning to implementation and from incremental to transformative changes. Linda received the 2009 University of Waterloo, Faculty of Environment, Alumni Achievement Award in recognition of professional achievement and distinguished environmental and community leadership.