Q&A with the experts: Robert McLeman on climate change impacts on health, wellbeing, migration and conflict

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has released the second report for its sixth major assessment of the science of climate change; Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. This report is a key input for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and informs international negotiations to address climate change. Robert McLeman, Interdisciplinary Centre on Climate Change member and Professor of Geography and Environmental Studies at Wilfrid Laurier University is a Coordinating Lead Author for Chapter 7: Health, wellbeing and the changing structure of communities. He discusses the chapter’s findings and their impacts on Canada and around the world.  

What was it like to work with the team leading chapter 7 and what were some of your key findings?  

We had a really strong team of more than a dozen lead authors, and two dozen additional contributing experts from around the world, representing a wide range of countries. COVID-19 made our work extra challenging, because we were unable to meet in person over the last two years. Collectively, we assessed approximately 1,600 peer-reviewed publications to identify the current impacts of climate change on health, wellbeing, migration and conflict, the projected future risks, and the adaptation options to make our communities and health systems more resilient to a changing climate. Our chapter contains a number of key findings, including:

• Climate-related illnesses, premature deaths, malnutrition in all its forms, and threats to mental health and wellbeing are increasing. Climate hazards are a growing driver of involuntary migration and displacement and are a contributing factor to violent conflict. 
• New evidence and awareness of current impacts and projected risk of climate change on health, wellbeing, migration, and conflict emerged, including greater evidence of the detrimental impacts of climate change on mental health.
• With proactive, timely, and effective adaptation, many risks for human health and wellbeing could be reduced and some potentially avoided.
• Climate resilient development has a strong potential to generate substantial co-benefits for health and wellbeing, and to reduce risks of involuntary displacement and conflict.
• Key transformations are needed to facilitate climate resilient development pathways for health, wellbeing, migration and conflict avoidance. The transformational changes will be more effective if they are responsive to regional, local, and Indigenous Knowledge, and consider the many dimensions of vulnerability, including those that are gender- and age-specific.

How will climate change affect physical and mental wellbeing of Canadians, and of people around the world more generally? 

Climate change will have direct and indirect impacts on peoples’ health and wellbeing. The specific impacts on any nation or group of people will depend upon locally experienced changes in the frequency and severity of extreme events, such as storms, floods, extreme heat events and wildfires, plus wider changes to ecosystems, water resources, and food systems caused by a warming climate. Some examples include:  

• Higher temperatures and changing precipitation patterns can facilitate the spread of mosquitoes and ticks that spread illnesses such as malaria and Lyme disease – the latter is a growing health challenge in many parts of Canada.  

• Extreme storms, floods and fires cause injuries and deaths and place considerable pressure on the health system, as we saw last year in British Columbia.  

• Increased frequency of extreme heat events will exacerbate health risks associated with cardiovascular disease and respiratory illnesses – something of great concern to communities with aging populations that are inherently more vulnerable and, again, a hazard Canadians have experienced multiple times in recent years.

• In many parts of the world, climate change impacts on fresh water are expected to lead to increased outbreaks of waterborne illnesses and declines in agricultural productivity that in turn lead to growing food insecurity, undernutrition and poverty in low-income groups.  

• Emerging evidence shows that climate change can have a variety of direct and indirect impacts on peoples’ mental health and wellbeing. 

Will climate change lead to mass migration and displacement? 

Currently, most climate-related migration takes place within countries, or between countries that share borders. International migration across long distances is difficult and expensive, and people that are displaced often lack the necessary means to migrate over long distances. 

In 2020, extreme weather events displaced approximately 30 million people worldwide, and these extreme events are expected to increase in frequency and/or severity in coming decades because of climate change. If greenhouse gas emissions continue rising and economic development in poorer countries continues to lag, the World Bank has projected that, by mid-century, we might see 140 million people or more displaced for climate-related reasons, primarily from low-income countries. Conversely, if immediate action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and achieve the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, the number of people displaced by climate events in coming decades could be kept to the levels we currently experience.  

It’s important to recognize that migration itself is not something to be prevented; under circumstances where migration is legal and safe and undertaken willingly, it can be a positive part of wider adaptation to climate change and other challenges. It is when people are involuntarily displaced or forced to move clandestinely that adversity emerges for migrants and for sending and receiving countries. Canadians know from experience the benefits migrants can bring when they are able to move with dignity and share in the opportunities available to residents in receiving countries.  

Will climate change spark wars or conflicts? 

There is no evidence of climate-related events triggering violent conflicts between countries. With that said, there are examples of climate events having exacerbated pre-existing conflicts and political tensions within countries, but there is no evidence that climate events have directly started violent civil conflicts. Most evidence suggests political, economic, social and other non-climatic factors are the primary causes of most existing conflicts, and there is no evidence that climate change will alter that dynamic in the near future. Engaging competing groups in cooperative management of resources – also known as environmental peace building – may provide an opportunity for reducing tensions in conflict-prone areas.   

Do you have hope that we can address the climate crisis?

Robert McLeman is Coordinating Lead Author for Chapter 7 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), a chapter that assessed the risks of climate change for human health wellbeing, migration and conflict. He led a team of a dozen international scholars in assessing over 1,600 published peer-reviewed reports to identify the current impacts and future risks of climate change on climate-sensitive diseases and health conditions, heat-related health risks, mental health, involuntary displacement of communities, and conflicts within countries. These impacts are already being felt at local, national, and global scales, and will have growing implications for Canadians in coming years. The chapter also identifies pathways to reduce future risks of climate change for health and displacement, with many solutions being ones that simultaneously provide benefits in terms of improving peoples’ general wellbeing, building adaptive capacity, and helping reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The chapter notes that the worst impacts of a changing climate on ecosystems, water resources, food production, urban centres and on other sectors eventually become challenges for human health and health systems.