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Waterloo Public Transportation Initiative
Environment 1 352
Title | Quantifying the Impact of Transit Reliability on User Costs |
Publication Type | Journal Article |
Year of Publication | 2009 |
Authors | Casello, J. M., A. Nour, and B. Hellinga |
Journal | Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board |
Issue | 2112 |
Pagination | 136-141 |
Date Published | 01/2009 |
ISSN | 0361-1981 |
Keywords | Arrivals and departures, Automatic vehicle location, Bus transit, Simulation, Travel behaviour, Travel time |
Abstract | Transportation modeling frameworks assume that travelers are economically rational; that is, they choose the lowest-cost alternative to complete a desired trip. The reliability of travel time is of critical importance to travelers. The ability to quantify reliability allows planners to estimate more accurately how system performance influences local travel behavior and to evaluate more appropriately potential investments in the transportation system infrastructure. This paper presents a methodology that makes use of automatic vehicle location data from the regional municipality of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, to estimate the reliability of transitservice. On the basis of these data, the impacts of unreliable service on generalized transit user costs are quantified by use of a simulation model of bus arrivals and passengers' desired arrival times. It is shown that the increasing reliability of arrivals at a station can decrease transit users' generalized costs significantly and by as much as 15% in a reasonably reliable network. It is further posited that the inclusion of uncertainty in the calculation of generalized costs may provide better estimates of mode splits in travel forecasting models. A description of future applications of the model concludes the paper. |
URL | http://trrjournalonline.trb.org/doi/abs/10.3141/2112-17 |
DOI | 10.3141/2112-17 |
Refereed Designation | Refereed |
Waterloo Public Transportation Initiative
Environment 1 352
The University of Waterloo acknowledges that much of our work takes place on the traditional territory of the Neutral, Anishinaabeg and Haudenosaunee peoples. Our main campus is situated on the Haldimand Tract, the land granted to the Six Nations that includes six miles on each side of the Grand River. Our active work toward reconciliation takes place across our campuses through research, learning, teaching, and community building, and is co-ordinated within the Office of Indigenous Relations.