As Floodwaters Rise, Pontianak Turns to Science and Planning for Answers

FINCAPES launches actuarial study to understand the true cost of flooding and strengthen climate resilience in Pontianak

Pontianak, Indonesia, January 20, 2026 — In Pontianak, flooding is not an occasional disaster, it is a recurring reality.

As tides rise along the Kapuas River and heavy rains sweep across the city, many residents have learned to live with water entering homes, damaging belongings, and disrupting daily life. In January alone, several parts of the city experienced banjir rob, or tidal flooding, multiple times, with water levels climbing close to two metres.

For families living in vulnerable neighborhoods, flooding rarely arrives as a single event. The water may recede, only to return the following day.

“Pontianak is located in a relatively low-lying area, and several neighborhoods are highly vulnerable to tidal flooding,” explained Edi Rusdi Kamtono, Mayor of Pontianak. “In some communities along the Kapuas River, seawater regularly enters residents’ homes, causing material damage and, in some cases, forcing people to evacuate. Even when the water goes down, flooding often returns the next day and can continue for four or five consecutive days.”

Against this backdrop, the FINCAPES Project has taken an important new step in helping Pontianak confront its flood future.

On 15–16 January 2026, local leaders, researchers, government agencies, and community representatives gathered for a Kick-Off Meeting and Technical Guidance Training, formally launching a new actuarial study on flood-related loss and damage in Pontianak City.

The initiative marks a shift in how flood risk is understood.

Until now, much of flood research has focused on where flooding occurs and how deep the water might become. But the new FINCAPES study asks a different—and increasingly urgent—question:

What do floods actually cost?

The actuarial study builds on FINCAPES’ earlier flood hazard modelling work in Pontianak and aims to calculate the financial, social, and economic impacts of flooding under both present and future climate conditions.

According to Prof. Stefan Steiner, Principal Investigator of FINCAPES, understanding exposure is only part of the picture.

“Flood hazard maps tell us where floods occur and who is exposed, but they do not quantify losses,” Steiner said. “The actuarial analysis allows us to translate flood risk into measurable financial impacts that are critical for policy decisions, budgeting, and long-term resilience planning.”

The study forms part of a broader evolution within FINCAPES’ flood resilience work. Throughout 2025, the project focused on helping communities and decision-makers better understand flood risk through modelling and public engagement. Now, the work is moving toward something more actionable, creating evidence that can support investment decisions, urban planning, and disaster risk financing.

“By combining flood hazard scenarios with actuarial methods, FINCAPES is generating evidence that can support risk-informed urban planning, infrastructure investment, and preparedness planning,” Steiner added.

The launch event brought together 50–70 participants from local and provincial government agencies, universities, civil society organizations, community groups, and the private sector. Discussions explored not only technical modelling and data requirements but also the partnerships and institutional coordination needed to make flood resilience work in practice.

A defining feature of the study is its commitment to Gender Equality and Socio-Economic Inclusion (GESEI).

Flood losses are often measured in damaged roads, buildings, and infrastructure. Yet many of the deepest impacts are less visible, lost income, interrupted caregiving, displacement, and reduced household resilience. These burdens are frequently experienced differently by women, older adults, persons with disabilities, and female-headed households.

Rather than treating these experiences as secondary, the FINCAPES approach places them at the centre of analysis.

By incorporating sex-disaggregated data and gender-sensitive vulnerability assessments, the study seeks to capture both economic and non-economic losses that conventional damage assessments often overlook.

The research itself is being led by the Actuarial Research Group within the Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences at Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM), with strong local involvement from Universitas Tanjungpura.

Following the launch, 21 student and university enumerators from Universitas Tanjungpura participated in a two-day technical guidance training focused on field data collection, quality assurance, and inclusive survey methods.

For Danang Teguh Qoyyimi, Research Team Lead from UGM, the urgency of the work is clear.

“Flooding in Pontianak happens regularly, even when water depths are not always extreme,” he explained. “Rainfall, river discharge, and environmental conditions combine to create recurring inundation. These events carry real social and economic consequences, and when the potential for financial loss is significant, preparedness cannot wait until after disaster strikes.”

Using internationally recognized catastrophe modelling approaches, the actuarial study will estimate future losses under different climate scenarios and generate key indicators such as Average Annual Loss—information that can help governments plan ahead rather than react afterward.

Running from January through June 2026, the study will conclude with stakeholder presentations and a public dissemination workshop.

For Pontianak, this work represents more than another technical study.

It is part of a growing effort to understand flooding not as an unavoidable fact of life, but as a challenge that can be measured, planned for, and managed more equitably.

As climate pressures intensify and floodwaters continue to shape life along the Kapuas River, Pontianak is turning to science, partnership, and forward-looking planning to help chart a more resilient future.