At the International Environmetrics Society regional meeting in Peterborough, as part of the session "Climate Resilience and Natural Hazards", I was invited to speak about my doctoral research.

Abstract:

Wildland fires can be viewed as having a "lifetime" that consists of several sequential phases. The specific sequence of phases can vary depending on how a fire is responded to (e.g., full suppression or monitoring) by a fire management agency. We investigate the lifetime distributions of two phases for fully suppressed wildland fires from a study area consisting of a response sector in Ontario's Northwest Fire Region. The progression of phases from ignition to being under control are examined using multi-state models and joint frailty models. Several fixed and random effects are incorporated into the models, including fire weather variables, the number of fires on the landscape, and seasonality. We identify the utility of our modelling approaches for understanding the factors that drive progression through all the phases of a fire as well as those that only influence specific phases.