Presentation Date:
Thursday, March 2, 2023
Location:
Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco (San Antonio, Texas, USA)
Presentation Slides:
Significance: Targeted marketing of menthol cigarettes in the US influences disparities in the prevalence of menthol smoking across demographic groups. Although menthol use increased nationally since 2004, there are no sub-national data documenting differences in use across demographic subgroups. This study estimated trends in the prevalence of menthol use among current adult smokers for the nine US census divisions by sex, age group, and race/ethnicity from 2002-2020. Methods: Data from 12 waves of the US ITC Survey (2002-2020) were used to estimate the prevalence of menthol use across census divisions and demographic subgroups using multilevel regression and poststratification (n=12,020). Weighted multilevel logistic regression was used to predict the prevalence of menthol use in 72 cross-classified groups of smokers defined by sex, age, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status; division-level effects were fit with a random intercept. Predicted prevalence was weighted by the total number of smokers in each cross-classified group, estimated from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and American Community Surveys, and aggregated to divisions within demographic subgroup. Estimates were validated against data from the Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS). Results: Overall modeled prevalence of menthol use was similar to external TUS-CPS estimates (concordance correlation coefficient=0.932: precision=0.966, accuracy=0.965). Prevalence increased in each division from 2002-2020. In 2020, prevalence was highest in the Middle Atlantic (46.3%) and South Atlantic (43.1%) and lowest in the Pacific (25.9%) and Mountain (24.2%) divisions. Prevalence was higher among smokers aged 18-29 (vs. 50+) and females (vs. males). Prevalence exceeded 80% among Black smokers in the Middle Atlantic, East North Central, West North Central, and South Atlantic divisions in all years but was only 59.0% in the Mountain division in 2020. Prevalence varied most among Hispanic smokers, ranging from 26.5% in the Pacific to 55.3% in New England in 2020. Conclusions: There was significant variation in the prevalence of menthol use among current smokers across US census divisions from 2002-2020. Prevalence was highest among Black smokers, and varied the most among Hispanic smokers. Results suggest the proposed US FDA menthol ban may exert different effects across geographic and demographic subgroups, requiring tailored cessation support for smokers following the FDA ban.