With rising EMS call volumes, increasing offload delays, and growing emergency department congestion, Thunder Bay’s emergency healthcare systems are under mounting pressure. As one of the primary emergency service hubs for Northwestern Ontario, both the Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre and Superior North EMS are struggling to meet escalating service demands. This collaborative project with NOSM University explores the growing frequency of Code Black events, critical blackout periods when no ambulances are available to be dispatched onto new calls. Code Black events, often caused by emergency room overcrowding and delays in transferring patients from paramedics to hospital staff, pose a significant public health risk as patients in need of potentially life-saving care may not receive treatment in time.
Recognizing that these pressures may be increasingly compounded by climate-related extreme weather events, this research will also examine how heat waves, cold snaps, and wildfires influence EMS usage and Code Blacks in the region. Using exploratory data analysis, machine learning, and predictive modelling that integrate ER, EMS, and climate data, this study aims to uncover how both environmental and system-level factors intersect to drive emergency system strain. By identifying key predictors and patterns, this research supports more effective prevention strategies, operational planning, and preparedness in the face of both rising demand and a changing climate in Thunder Bay and beyond.
Project members:
Isabella Coady, MSc Candidate
Last updated: November 18, 2025