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Waterloo Public Transportation Initiative
Environment 1 352
Title | Predicting the Mean and Variance of Transit Segment and Route Travel Times |
Publication Type | Journal Article |
Year of Publication | 2011 |
Authors | Moghaddam, S. Salek, R. Noroozi, J. M. Casello, and B. Hellinga |
Journal | Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board |
Volume | 2217 |
Pagination | 30-37 |
Abstract | Travel time characteristics of transit vehicles such as mean and standard deviation (SD) are of critical importance in both transit planning and operations. Predicting these measures not only helps transitagencies schedule and allocate resources more accurately but also facilitates the development of more robust mode choice and departure time models. Data from automatic vehicle locations and automatic passenger counting, as well as outputs from a travel forecasting model, were used in presenting a methodology to predict the mean and the SD of travel times for proposed transit routes. Models were generated in two ways. First, mean and SD of travel time were estimated by regressing observed values against roadway and operational characteristics. The SD was estimated between origins and destinations by considering the SDs of individual segments and the correlation between segments. Advantages and disadvantages of these two methods were evaluated. The models were calibrated and validated with automatic vehicle location data from the bus system serving the Regional Municipality of Waterloo in Ontario, Canada. |
URL | http://trrjournalonline.trb.org/doi/abs/10.3141/2217-04 |
DOI | 10.3141/2217-04 |
Refereed Designation | Refereed |
Waterloo Public Transportation Initiative
Environment 1 352
The University of Waterloo acknowledges that much of our work takes place on the traditional territory of the Neutral, Anishinaabeg, and Haudenosaunee peoples. Our main campus is situated on the Haldimand Tract, the land granted to the Six Nations that includes six miles on each side of the Grand River. Our active work toward reconciliation takes place across our campuses through research, learning, teaching, and community building, and is co-ordinated within the Office of Indigenous Relations.