Around 90 future thinkers converged at the event Foresight for Climate Resilience in the Grebel Gallery and via livestream Monday, March 2. This event was part of the larger Resilient Urban Futures workshop organized by Local Futures and Marta Berbés-Blázquez, a Professor at the School of Environment, Resources, and Sustainability at the University of Waterloo. Panelists Elizabeth Cook, Helen Kerr, and Lauren Keeler explored the conceptual approaches and preventative measures communities are encouraged to consider when preparing for extreme climate events and social upheaval.
Elizabeth Cook, an Urban Ecologist at the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies and Assistant Professor at Barnard College in New York City, encourages the use of modelling approaches to collaboratively produce solutions. Her work centres around smaller groups and organizations, believing in the importance of discussions around what is desired for the future, actions needed to achieve them, and what the timeline for these actions might look like. For example, to have more trees for resident wellbeing and to provide more canopy cover to mitigate hotspots, a city might aim to plant a certain number of trees in a given number of years.
Similarly, Helen Kerr, a Foresight Practitioner at the University of Waterloo and Professor at OCAD University in Toronto, focuses on exploratory futures with cities around the world. Her approach begins with understanding people’s ambition in order to build objectives based on them. Most communities have similar overarching goals: to live in a safe, happy, prosperous, and healthy city with some level of certainty for the future. What this looks like can be different in different places. After learning about what city resident goals are, the next step is to synthesize the information and see the direction they are actually headed, using a visual to depict this scenario unfolding. The final steps are to create a timeline of change to show that it is possible to steer in a preferable direction and then discuss how they can turn these ideas into reality.
Lauren Keeler, an Associate Professor at Arizona State University, focuses on capacity building and emphasizes the idea that the future has not happened yet and is indefinite. There are five different ways she uses foresight:
- Future shocks and city resilience – examining what cities deal with on a regular basis (e.g. homelessness and affordability), analyzing what they currently have and what they need to build
- Audacity – encouraging communities to reflect on what they want their city to be known for in the future
- Visioning – assessing the economic impact of taking away certain climate-concerning industries and what they are willing to give up to preserve their communities
- Transformational partnerships – organizing around shared goals
- Training government experts – equipping individuals with the tools to think long-term
Together, these strategies show that change is always possible when communities are willing to take action.
The impact of the Foresight for Climate Resilience event was expressed by the attendees, many sharing how the discussion redefined their understanding of resilience and long-term planning. This is what a few attendees said:
“It expanded my ability to think beyond my research in food systems to how it applies to cities and the future in a more holistic way.”
“I was really inspired by how much creativity and storytelling is part of future foresight work and I wonder how arts can partner more with local government to bring future visions to life.”
“It was a great talk! I think, in general, professionals, e.g. engineers, planners, etc. need to be aware of how to conduct and implement foresight and imagine possible future scenarios. Although the concept has been around for years or decades, I am not sure that cities are actively going through these types of activities to effectively and sustainably plan for the future.”
Our capacity for decline is matched by our capacity for growth. As Keeler said, “the future is imaginary,” but what we imagine impacts the actions we take now. Across all the panelists, organizers, and attendees, one message was very clear: inclusive discussions and collaborative efforts are needed more than ever to shape resilient futures.