Determine potential of peatland nature-based solutions across regional and national scenarios: Ensemble modelling


Can-Peat's main goal is to evaluate the potential for peatland nature-based solutions in Canada. Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles (CLASSIC), Canadian Model for Peatlands (CaMP), and McGill Wetland Model (MWM) can all be used to model various scenarios of future climate and disturbance regimes. Together, the three models can be used to evaluate the impacts of a variety of disturbance, restoration and conversion avoidance scenarios that no one model can address alone. Specifically, as a process-based model, CLASSIC will be used for scenarios of conservation of undeveloped peatlands, taking into account climate-induced shifts in moisture status, wildfire behaviour and permafrost thaw and explore opportunities for greenhouse gas emission reductions through fire management scenarios. In contrast to CLASSIC, which must operate at national and global scales, the MWM incorporates more carbon and nutrient budget processes making it suitable for process-based understanding of site-level peatland response to development and restoration. Finally, as an aspatial empirical model, CaMP can be used to evaluate peatland conservation including changing fire regimes, opportunities for fire management in peatlands, impacts of disturbance and restoration but without explicit accounting of the impacts of a changing climate on peatland plant growth and moisture status.

Activity Outline

  • Choose focus regions based on available data for model validation and in consultation with partners to provide the most value for management planning
  • Compile and generate simulations using all three models (CLASSIC, CaMP, MWM) to examine greenhouse gas flux response to management scenarios over a range of peatland types across these representative geographical and climatic zones
  • Summarize outputs to help constrain uncertainty in greenhouse gas emission estimates and indicate remaining knowledge gaps
  • Quantify potential greenhouse gas emission reductions from improved peatland management (i.e., peatland nature-based solution potential at regional to national scales)