Crimean conflict ‘a dangerous game’

“I don’t think war in Ukraine is in the cards,” says John Jaworsky, an assistant professor of political science in the University of Waterloo's Faculty of Arts. “But this is a situation in which minor incidents could lead to an escalation of the conflict, even if no one initially planned to move toward a hot war. This is a dangerous game being played by the Russian military.”

The current crisis in Ukraine first arose in late November when the former president, Viktor Yanukovych, refused to sign an association agreement with the European Union that would have allowed the country to develop closer ties with the E.U. Popular protests, which were quashed brutally, Jaworsky says, led to the eventual demise of a corrupt and increasingly authoritarian government. Russia, which has a large naval base in Sevastopol, in the Crimea region of Ukraine, has since increased its troop strength there and in other parts of Crimea, and is now taking steps to annex the region, whose population is approximately 58 per cent ethnic Russian.

“It was a very stupid decision by [Russian president, Vladimir] Putin to step in,” says Jaworsky. “There was no meaningful threat to Russians or Russian speakers in Crimea or other parts of Ukraine that would justify such actions.”

“Putin seems to me, at a minimum, very intent on maintaining a sphere of influence in most of the territories that were part of the former U.S.S.R. He’s not trying to recreate the Soviet Union, but he wants a high degree of control over developments in what he considers to be his ‘back yard.’  To ensure this control, he has shown that he is willing to use very drastic measures.”

To justify moving into Crimea, Jaworsky says Putin has used disturbing rhetoric similar to that used by Hitler when he annexed the Czech Sudetenland prior to the Second World War and then invaded Poland.

“To explain his actions, Putin says he is defending the rights of the Russian minority.  Putin is not a Hitler, but some of his statements have been ominous, and clearly reminiscent of the rhetoric used by Hitler and his associates to justify Nazi Germany’s invasion of Poland,” says Jaworsky.

He decries the decision by the Crimean parliament to hold a March 16 referendum on whether or not to join Russia.

“Ukrainian authorities consider this illegal,” he says. “But even if it was legal, it is impossible for a meaningful referendum to be held in such a short time, especially given the large-scale and disruptive presence of armed troops from another country, Russia, in Crimea.”

Observers from Western nations, including Canada, have been unable to get a good sense of the severity of the situation, since the local authorities, backed by ‘unidentified’ armed personnel, have denied them access to Crimea.

“If there is a real, genuine threat to the safety and wellbeing of ethnic Russians in Crimea, the local authorities should welcome outside observers who can provide a realistic assessment of the situation. Their reluctance to allow observers to enter Crimea shows that something illegitimate is going on.”

An important minority which faces very real and genuine threats is the Crimean Tatar population. Since this minority, comprising approximately 13 per cent of the Crimean population, has consistently supported the central authorities in Ukraine, Crimean Tatars are increasingly likely to become the target of discrimination by the pro-Russia authorities in Crimea, says Jaworsky.