Monday, December 7, 2009 (all day)
Speaker: J. Doyne Farmer
With the advance of global warming, the predictability of future technological change becomes a pressing and relevant issue. Doyne Farmer of the Santa Fe Institute compares several different hypotheses for technological improvement using different examples of technologies, ranging from computers to energy. He shows that it is indeed possible to make useful forecasts of technological progress. He also reviews ideas for why such laws exist, and discusses how one can use this to address problems like global warming.