WatCISL members Vanessa Schweizer and Kasra Motlaghzadeh present research at the 11th Annual Conference of the Society for Decision-Making Under Deep Uncertainty

Vanessa Schweizer, Kasra Motlaghzadeh

Abstract

According to the IPCC, achieving the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement requires scaling up current carbon dioxide removal methods ten-fold. These methods are essential for enabling netzero emissions both by compensating for residual positive emissions and by reducing atmospheric CO2 to safe levels reversing temperature overshoot. However, significant socio-economic and technological uncertainties must be considered when making policy decisions to ensure sustainable growth. This presentation reports research in progress to systematically explore a large number of possible qualitative scenarios of direct air capture and storage (DACCS) in Canada. The goal is to develop dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) for the Canadian government to guide the development of this emerging sector. We used expert elicitation with the cross-impact balance method to generate a large number of qualitative scenarios taking into account the dependencies of various key uncertainties for DACCS development and deployment in Canada. These scenarios cover a wide range of dimensions, from social aspects like public perception to techno-economic factors such as future cost pathways. In the next steps of our project, we will use these scenarios to identify critical branching points of the system (i.e., points of divergence across alternative futures) that should be considered for dynamic policy design and planning. Later phases of the project will employ energy-economy models to quantify different transition costs between actions, forming the basis for our DAPP for the Canadian DACCS system.