Yacov Haimes: Understanding, Modeling, and Managing Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems

Friday, October 20, 2017 2:30 pm - 3:30 pm EDT (GMT -04:00)

View slides from Yacov Haimes' Presentation: "Understanding, Modeling, and Managaing Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems"

A joint seminar sponsored by Waterloo Institute for Complexity & Innovation [WICI] and the Department of Systems Design Engineering.

Abstract:    The growing interest by the professional community and in the literature regarding the concept of complexity deserves a fresh reflection on its essence, and on its evolving definitions and characterizations. For systems modelers, the starting point begins by focusing on what constitutes complexity and how to understand, model and manage it. In this seminar we focus on understanding the fundamental characteristics of complexity; namely, the prevalence of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I-I) within and among the subsystems and systems that constitute complex systems of systems (Complex SoS).

Building on state-space theory and risk analysis, we develop a specific theoretical and methodological approach to identify and model the I-I characterizing Complex SoS, and thus manage myriad sources of risk resulting from their configurations. We achieve this fundamental challenging task by tracking, pursuing, and tabulating shared/common states, decisions, decisionmakers, resources, policies, organizational set-ups, location, and time frame, among others, within and among the subsystems and systems that constitute Complex SoS. Furthermore, to model and improve our understanding of Complex SoS and quantifying the I-I that characterize them, we have reinvented the use of and developed an innovative application for fault tree analysis that does not require information on the reliability of any system. Fault trees enable us to model the I-I in terms of AND Gates (systems connected in parallel), and OR Gates (systems connected in series.) thereby quantifying the sources of risk to Complex SoS by tracing their genesis to the inherent I-I. Recent case studies implementing this new theory and methodology for modeling Complex SoS will be presented.

*This seminar draws from the forthcoming book by the speaker, titled:

Modeling and Managing Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems, WILEY, 2018.

Bio:Yacov Y. Haimes is the Lawrence R. Quarles Professor of Systems and Information Engineering, Civil and Environmental Engineering, and Founding Director (1987) of the Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems at the University of Virginia. He received his M.S. and Ph.D. (with Distinction) degrees in Systems Engineering from UCLA, and his B.S. degree in Mathematics, Physics, and Chemistry from Hebrew University, Jerusalem. On the faculty of Case Western Reserve University (1970-1987), he chaired the Systems Engineering Department. As an American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)-American Geophysical Union (AGU) Congressional Science Fellow (1977-78), Dr. Haimes served in the Office of Science and Technology Policy, Executive Office of the President, and on the United States House of Representatives Science and Technology Committee. From 1990 to 2011 he served as a consultant, then a Visiting Scientist at the Software Engineering Institute, Carnegie Mellon University. In 2015, he was appointed by the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security to a three-year term on serve on the Homeland Security Science and Technology Advisory Committee. He is a Fellow of seven societies: ASCE, IEEE, INCOSE, AWRA, IWRA, AAAS, and Society for Risk Analysis (SRA), (where he is a past President). He is a member of Rotary International, the Raven Society and the Tau Beta Pi and Sigma Xi honor societies. The Fourth Edition of his most recent book, Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, was published in 2016 by Wiley & Sons (the first three editions were published in 1998, 2004 and 2009). He has signed a contract with Wiley & Sons to write a new textbook: “Modeling and Managing Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems” with the manuscript due by September 2017. Professor Haimes is the recipient of the 2014 UCLA Civil and Environmental Engineering Department Distinguished Alumnus Award; the 2014 ASCE American Academy of Water Resources Engineers Founders Award; the 2010 Distinguished Educator Award presented by SRA; the 2007 Icko Iben Award presented by AWRA; the 2001 Norbert Weiner Award, presented by IEEE-SMC; the 2000 Distinguished Achievement Award, presented by SRA; the 1997 Warren A. Hall Medal, the highest award presented by Universities Council on Water Resources; the 1995 Georg Cantor Award, presented by the International Society on Multiple Criteria Decision Making, and the 1994 Outstanding Contribution Award presented by the IEEE-SMC; following Hurricane Katrina, he was appointed as the 2007 Arthur Maass-Gilbert White Fellow, U.S Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources (IWR), among others. He is a registered Professional Engineer in Ohio and Virginia; Diplomate of the American Academy of Water Resources Engineers (and a Founding Trustee of the AAWRE); the Past Engineering Area Editor of Risk Analysis: An International Journal. He has authored (and co-authored) six books and 300 technical publications, over 200 of which were published in archival-refereed journals. He has served as dissertation/thesis advisor to 39 Ph.D. students, to 85 M.S., and to 132 B.S. students.