Distinguished Lecture Series
Paul Gustafson
Department of Statistics at the University of British Columbia
Room: DC 1302
Bayesian Inference when Parameter Identification is Lacking: A Narrative Arc across Applications, Methods, and Theory
Partially identified models generally yield “in between” statistical behavior. As the sample size goes to infinity, the posterior distribution on the target parameter heads to a distribution narrower than the prior distribution but wider than a single point. Such models arise naturally in many areas, including the health sciences. They arise particularly when we own up to limitations in how data are acquired. I aim to highlight the narrative arc associated with partial identification. This runs from the applied (e.g., broaching the topic with subject-area scientists), to the methodological (e.g., implementing a Bayesian analysis without full identification), to the theoretical (e.g., characterizing what is going on as generally as possible). As per many areas of statistics, there is good scope to get involved across the whole arc, rather than just at one end or other.
Paul Gustafson
Paul Gustafson is a Professor in the Department of Statistics at the University of British Columbia, Vancouver. He is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association, the 2008 recipient of the CRM-SSC Prize in Statistics, and the 2020 Gold Medallist of the Statistical Society of Canada. His research interests include Bayesian methods, causal inference, evidence synthesis, measurement error, and partial identification. He has authored two books: Measurement Error and Misclassification in Statistics and Epidemiology: Impact and Bayesian Adjustments (2004, Chapman and Hall / CRC Press), and Bayesian Inference for Partially Identified Models: Exploring the Limits of Limited Data (2015, Chapman and Hall / CRC Press). He was the Editor-in-Chief of the Canadian Journal of Statistics (2007-2009), and is currently the Special Editor for Statistical Methods for the journal Epidemiology. At UBC, Paul served as a founding Co-director of the Master of Data Science program, and he will soon embark upon a second term as Head of the Department of Statistics.
David A. Sprott (1930-2013)
Professor David Sprott was the first Chair (1967-1975) of the Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science at the University of Waterloo and first Dean of the Faculty of Mathematics (1967-1972). The David Sprott Distinguished Lecture Series was created in recognition of his tremendous leadership at a formative time of our department, as well as his highly influential research in statistical science.