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Thursday, May 11, 2017 4:00 pm - 4:00 pm EDT (GMT -04:00)

David Sprott Distinguished Lecture by Professor Peter Diggle, Lancaster University

A Tale of Two Parasites: how can Gaussian processes contribute to improved public health in Africa?

In this talk, I will rst make some general comments about the role of statistical modelling in scientic research, illustrated by two examples from infectious disease epidemiology. I will then describe in detail how statistical modelling based on Gaussian spatial stochastic processes has been used to construct region-wide risk maps to inform the operation of a multi-national control programme for onchocerciasis (river blindness) in equatorial Africa. Finally, I will describe work-in progress aimed at exploiting recent developments in mobile microscopy to enable more precise local predictions of community-level risk.