Thursday, May 6, 2021

Professor Chris Bauch talks COVID computer modelling

Since the beginning of the pandemic, Professor Chris Bauch has provided important information to government and public-health officials to help them make informed decisions. Professor Bauch and his team in Applied Mathematics create computer models that outline likely consequences of certain decisions and actions. He recently spoke with Pamela Smyth on last week’s episode of the University’s Beyond the Bulletin Podcast to explain what computer modelling is and what it isn’t.

Listen to the full interview in Episode 86 of the Beyond the Bulletin Podcast.

(note: this interview has been condensed for space and clarity)

What is computer modelling?

Computer modelling is basically creating representation of the world inside your computer. Sometimes they're called computer models, sometimes are called mathematical models. We create these computer models or mathematical models to represent important features of real-world systems that we're interested in and understanding better.

How do you take variables into account when you're dealing with a transmissible disease?

What you have to do is you use your experience based on modelling from previous infectious diseases, previous pandemics, previous seasonal outbreaks of diseases to learn what elements your model needs, and which ones are less important. And then you also have to systematically assess the impact of uncertainties. For example, if you are less certain about the probability of mortality or the probability of getting infected, then your model projections have to represent that uncertainty using, for example, best- and worst-case scenarios.

How accurate are mathematical models?

Mathematical models are not crystal balls that can tell you exactly what's going to happen. They range in accuracy, depending upon what you're modelling, and how you're using it. So, for example, if you're talking specifically about mathematical models, they can predict the right trend, they can often be qualitatively correct, even if they aren't quantitatively correct.

You've done a number of models since the pandemic started. Why did you decide to model the things that you modelled?

We chose our models based on questions that were on many people's mind. For example, back last spring and early summer, one of the questions was when and how should we reopen. And we constructed a model to look at different approaches through opening. For example, you could either reopen the entire province at once, or you could reopen different health units at different times. And our model showed that if you reopen different health units at different times, that's potentially a better approach. And the province ended up doing that in the end, even though at first, they wanted to do everything in lockstep.

Is there anything that you've examined that would shine light on what the fall might be like?

No, we haven't looked into the fall yet. The big question is how many people will actually accept the vaccine. And if there's too much vaccine hesitancy, then that will leave a large pool of susceptible persons. And it might be large enough to allow for another wave in the fall or the winter. And so that's my big concern. And it's related to that unknown of how many people actually accept the vaccine, and will it be enough. But if we can get those people vaccinated, if we can overcome that vaccine hesitancy, then we can prevent a fall/winter wave for sure. And even at the University, I think we could go back to in-person learning. But we do have to deal with that issue.

So, what's next for you and your team?

One project is trying to estimate how many lives were saved by the March 2020 lockdown, and also by the one that started on Boxing Day in 2020. We have all the data from the last year that we can use to improve the model and make sure it's realistic. We can adjust the model parameters so that it captures, reproduces what actually happened. For example, in the March 2020, lockdown, our results are showing that if we hadn't locked down and if people hadn't bothered to social distance, we would have had 175,000 deaths in the best-case scenario, instead of the 3,000 that we actually had. So that shows that the lockdown had a huge impact and in saving lots of lives in Ontario.

W Store, Student Success Office launch #UWaterloolife Memories photo contest

A message from W Store and The Student Success Office.

Are you missing UWaterloo campus life us much as we are? Help us relive your favourite #UWaterloolife memories until we can be back together on campus again. From Monday, May 3 to Friday, June 25, W Store and the SSO are collaborating to share your #uwaterloolife memories with the rest of campus.

All UWaterloo community members, students, faculty and staff, are invited to submit their favourite photo(s) featuring a cherished UWaterloo memory for a chance to be featured in the official 2022 University of Waterloo calendar and/or on the @UWaterloolife Instagram account.

Entries may be submitted online to the #UWaterloolife Memories submission page.

Entrants can indicate on the submission page whether they would like their photo(s) to be considered for the W Store Calendar Contest, the @UWaterloolife Instagram account, or both.

Twelve winning photos will be featured in the official 2022 University of Waterloo calendar and printed on-campus at W Print. Each of the winners will receive a copy of the 2022 University of Waterloo calendar. One grand prize photo will be selected by popular vote and the winner will receive a $100 W Store gift card and have their photo featured on the calendar’s cover. In addition to the grand prize winner, two runner-up photos will be selected by popular vote on Instagram to receive a $50 W Store gift card (second place prize) and a $25 W Store gift card (third place prize).

To submit your photo(s) for a chance to be featured in the 2022 University of Waterloo calendar and/or the @UWaterloolife Instagram account, please visit the #UWaterloolife Memories submission page. 

For full W Store Calendar Contest details, please visit W Store’s contest rules page.

Questions about this collaboration? Connect with Kayley Marner and Jennifer Halcrow.

REDress project installation a symbol of inequity and hope

St. Jerome's University’s Alumni Court is home to an outdoor display honouring Red Dress Day on May 5.

This is an excerpt of an article originally published on the St. Jerome's University website.

Jamie Black, a Métis multidisciplinary artist based in Winnipeg, Manitoba, had an idea. Create an aesthetic response to the issue of missing or murdered Indigenous women across Canada, by displaying dresses. Red dresses. The colour of blood, anger, spirituality, and love. Five-hundred. One for each woman lost. Hung on display outdoors in public and eye-catching spaces that could not be ignored by people walking by them, and where they could serve as a reminder of the racialization and sexualized violence against Indigenous women.

With this vision and a partnership with the University of Winnipeg the The REDress Project was launched, and over the past 10 years since has travelled across North America and been featured in the media, most recently in the April issue of Vogue magazine. On May 5^th, St. Jerome’s University (SJU) honours the message of the project with its own version of a red dress tribute, led by a faculty member with whom the meaning has a personal connection.

Andrew Deman, PhD, is a lecturer in the Department of English at SJU and the University of Waterloo. Together with his family and supported by SJU leadership and the University of Waterloo’s Human Rights, Equity, and Inclusion office’s Indigenous Initiatives, he brought the red dress message to the SJU campus by installing an exhibit in its Alumni Court. Using five dresses donated by The New Hamburg Thrift Centre, Deman and his family were on campus early on the morning of May 5^th to honour lost Indigenous women and Black’s vision.

“My wife and two young daughters are Metis, members of the lost generation,” noted Deman. “In recent years we've found that connecting our children to their cultural heritage is a difficult parenting exercise, given the tradition of violence, inequity and - quite frankly - atrocity that is a part of Canada's historic treatment of Indigenous women. The temptation is to have them know nothing about these things - ignorant bliss - but I think it's only through awareness that we can actually move forward.”

Deman added that as a Catholic institution St. Jerome’s has been forthright in its commitment to the gospel values of love, truth, and justice and that current leadership has doubled-down on those commitments in what he described as “a number of heartening ways.”

“There's a fundamental inequity in Canadian society with regard to the treatment of Indigenous women, one that ignores truth and evades justice,” Deman added, “but acknowledging and condemning these inequities is the first step, in my eyes, toward a brighter future. If nothing else, there is love behind this initiative.”

Read the rest of the article on the SJU website

READI or not: actuarial science outreach makes a global impact

Before the READI (Risk Management, Economic Sustainability and Actuarial Science Development in Indonesia) project kicked off in late 2015, Indonesia was in dire need of actuaries. As a country impacted by the threat of extreme weather brought on by global warming, Indonesia was in short supply of actuaries to help identify the climate-related financial risks that could negatively impact pensions and insurance industry solvency. With funding support from Global Affairs Canada and other donors, the University of Waterloo launched READI to meet the needs of Indonesia’s insurance and pension industries.

The project has been a resounding success. Interest in actuarial science in Indonesia has skyrocketed since READI’s inception. Partnering directly with eight Indonesian universities, READI’s mathematics outreach program was able to reach more than 50,000 students, parents, and teachers across the country.

“Before we got there, if young people were good at mathematics they’d usually go into engineering or economics — but they didn’t know about actuarial science,” READI field director Bill Duggan says. “When we started, about 65 students a year were doing actuarial science. Now there’s over a 1,000 per year in 16 undergraduate actuarial science programs across different islands of the country.”

READI was able to overcome several challenges in its implementation. One component of the READI involved the integration of the co-op education model into Indonesian education, which was initially a major challenge for a country that rarely used experiential learning in the past. However, after showcasing Waterloo’s own co-op programs to people in Indonesia, READI was able to support the development of a Ministerial Decree which encouraged universities and technical colleges to develop co-op programs within the country. With universities across Indonesia now being seriously urged to develop co-op education study programs, READI has helped catalyze a paradigm shift in the country’s educational system entirely.

READI was originally projected to end in September 2020, but due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which necessitated remote delivery of all training activities, and with it much lower operating costs, the project extended its activities in Indonesia for another six months. With the cancellation of in-person events, READI pivoted to virtual meetings, webinars and e-learning, allowing the project to transition without skipping a beat, and in many cases considerably increasing geographic reach and involving larger numbers of participants.

Budget savings achieved as a result of the pandemic were used to add supplementary training activities. All training activities in Indonesia have now been completed with one final initiative, to send Indonesian professors to follow a Master’s program at Waterloo, to wind up by the end of August 2021.

The impact of the READI project has been highly significant for both Indonesia and the University of Waterloo. “The reputation that UWaterloo now has in Indonesia, courtesy of the READI project, is huge,” says READI project director Jean Lowry. “It opens up a whole new avenue of having students coming from Indonesia to the University of Waterloo.” 

Looking to the future, an International Development Group (IDG) created by Duggan and Lowry which, at least initially, will be based in Waterloo’s Faculty of Mathematics, has been actively pursuing new international projects in a number of different locations. Continuing to work closely with Global Affairs Canada, the IDG seeks to develop additional projects that will create impacts across the world while expanding opportunities for faculty and staff at Waterloo to work on these additional projects.

“We’re always in the habit of creating new projects,” says Lowry. There’s almost an obligation on the part of universities and countries like Canada to reach out to be part of global solutions. We have an obligation to share what we know.”