Contact Info
Department of Applied Mathematics
University of Waterloo
Waterloo, Ontario
Canada N2L 3G1
Phone: 519-888-4567, ext. 32700
Fax: 519-746-4319
PDF files require Adobe Acrobat Reader
With different countries, and different levels of government grappling with whether or not to publicly release their mathematical models and projections on the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic, we asked Professor Chris Bauch, an expert in mathematical and computer modelling of infectious disease outbreaks, to explain the basics to us.
What is a disease model/projection and how are they created?
A disease model is a way of using mathematical equations or computer simulations to predict how many cases we can expect in the coming weeks or months. They are created by writing down equations that represent the best current knowledge of how the disease spreads, the demographics and movement patterns of the host populations, the course of the infection in individuals, and how interventions like physical distancing reduce infection. The equations are then solved to figure out how many cases we can expect in the future, under different scenarios for government actions, availability of health technologies, public reaction and many other variables.
Learn more about modelling in the full Q&A.
Contact Info
Department of Applied Mathematics
University of Waterloo
Waterloo, Ontario
Canada N2L 3G1
Phone: 519-888-4567, ext. 32700
Fax: 519-746-4319
PDF files require Adobe Acrobat Reader
The University of Waterloo acknowledges that much of our work takes place on the traditional territory of the Neutral, Anishinaabeg and Haudenosaunee peoples. Our main campus is situated on the Haldimand Tract, the land granted to the Six Nations that includes six miles on each side of the Grand River. Our active work toward reconciliation takes place across our campuses through research, learning, teaching, and community building, and is co-ordinated within the Office of Indigenous Relations.