Applied Math Seminar I Serghei A. Bocaniov, Process-based modeling as a powerful tool for improving scientific knowledge and making better informed management decisio

MC 5501

Speaker

Serghei A. Bocaniov |Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Waterloo

Title

Process-based modeling as a powerful tool for improving scientific knowledge and making better informed management decisions

 Abstract

By the 1960s the Great Lakes had become polluted by sewer waste and factory pollutants to such a degree that Lake Erie was declared dead. The implementation of the 1972 Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA) resulted in a significant recovery with greatly improved water quality. While impacts of harmful algal blooms (HABs) and hypoxia (low dissolved oxygen) were reduced significantly in the Great Lakes, they have resurfaced, particularly in Lake Erie. Lake Erie has the most densely inhabited watershed in the Great Lakes region, and is an important source of drinking water, commercial and sport fishing, and other forms of recreation. The increase in eutrophication processes as demonstrated by increased frequency, extent and severity of HABs and hypoxia, makes Lake Erie a management concern and the focus of extensive scientific research to understand its response to climate change, invasive species and external nutrient loads. In this presentation I will present three case studies to show how process-based modeling can be used to improve the scientific understanding of the current environmental problems in Lake Erie and make more informed management decisions. The case studies will include the role of invasive species (mussels) in shaping the spatial and temporal dynamics of phytoplankton dynamics, estimates of hypoxia based on the available dissolved oxygen monitoring data, and prediction of the hypoxia extent as a response to modification in external nutrient loads.