Mathematics
can
help
public
health
workers
better
understand
and
influence
human
behaviours
that
lead
to
the
spread
of
infectious
disease,
according
to
a
study
from
the
University
of
Waterloo.
Current
models
used
to
predict
the
emergence
and
evolution
of
pathogens
within
host
populations
do
not
include
social
behaviour.
“We
tend
to
treat
disease
systems
in
isolation
from
social
systems,
and
we
don’t
often
think
about
how
they
connect
to
each
other,
or
influence
each
other,”
said
Chris
Bauch,
co-author
and
a
professor
in
the
Department
of
Applied
Mathematics
at
Waterloo.
“This
gives
us
a
better
appreciation
of
how
social
reactions
to
infectious
diseases
can
influence
which
strains
become
prominent
in
the
population.”
By
adding
dynamic
social
interactions
to
the
models
already
used
for
disease
outbreaks
and
evolution,
researchers
could
better
anticipate
how
a
virulent
pathogen
strain
may
emerge
based
on
how
humans
attempt
to
control
the
spread
of
the
disease.
This
new
addition
to
disease
modelling
could
allow
scientists
to
better
prevent
undesirable
outcomes,
such
as
more
dangerous
mutant
strains
from
evolving
and
spreading.
The
social
modelling
could
impact
public
health
responses
to
emerging
infectious
diseases
like
Ebola
and
Severe
Acute
Respiratory
Syndrome
(SARS).
Human
behaviour
during
these
outbreaks
often
changes
dramatically
during
the
outbreak.
People
may
start
using
face
masks,
or
stop
using
them
prematurely.
Also,
public
fear
of
the
pathogens
may
end
up
driving
the
wrong
type
of
behaviour
if
the
public’s
information
is
incorrect.
The
modelling
could
help
public
health
responses
navigate
and
better
channel
these
kinds
of
population
responses,
Bauch
and
his
co-author
Joe
Pharaon
formulated
the
new
mathematical
model
to
study
the
influence
of
social
behaviour
on
the
competition
between
pathogen
strains
with
different
virulence.
Using
computer
simulations,
they
analyzed
how
the
model
behaved
under
various
possible
scenarios
that
might
occur
to
populations
to
explore
the
logic
of
the
hypothesis
that
social
behaviour
plays
a
role
in
the
evolution
of
the
strain.
“Human
behaviour
plays
a
big
role
in
the
spread
and
evolution
of
an
infectious
disease,”
said
Pharaon,a
PhD
candidate
at
Waterloo’s
Faculty
of
Mathematics.
“The
model
we
formulated
was
a
general
model,
but
it
could
be
adapted
with
more
biological
detail
and
structure
for
more
specific
pathogens.”
The
paper,
The
influence
of
social
behaviour
on
competition
between
virulent
pathogen
strains,
appears
in
the Journal
of
Theoretical
Biology.
MEDIA
CONTACT
| Matthew
Grant
226-929-7627
|
@uwaterloonews
|
uwaterloo.ca/news
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