Friday, February 8, 2013 11:00 am
-
11:00 am
EST (GMT -05:00)
MC 5158
Speaker
John Lang, Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo
Title
The Arab Spring: A simple compartmental model for the dynamics of a revolution
Abstract
The
self-immolation
of
Mohamed
Bouazizi
on
Dec.
17,
2010
in
the
small
Tunisian
city
of
Sidi
Bouzid
set
off
a
sequence
of
events
culminating
in
the
revolutions
of
the
Arab
Spring.
It
is
widely
believed
that
the
Internet
and
social
media
played
a
critical
role
in
the
growth
and
success
of
protests
that
led
to
the
downfall
of
the
regimes
in
Egypt
and
Tunisia.
However,
the
precise
mechanisms
by
which
these
new
media
affected
the
course
of
events
remains
unclear.
We
introduce
a
simple
compartmental
model
for
the
dynamics
of
a
revolution
in
a
dictatorial
regime
such
as
Tunisia
or
Egypt
which
takes
into
account
the
role
of
the
Internet
and
social
media.
An
elementary
mathematical
analysis
of
the
model
identifies
four
main
parameter
regions
that
correspond
to:
stable
police
state,
meta-stable
police
state,
unstable
police
state,
and
failed
state.
We
illustrate
how
these
regions
capture,
at
least
qualitatively,
a
wide
range
of
scenarios
observed
in
the
context
of
revolutionary
movements
by
considering
the
revolutions
in
Tunisia
and
Egypt,
as
well
as
the
situation
in
Iran,
China,
and
Somalia.
We
pose
four
questions
about
the
dynamics
of
the
Arab
Spring
revolutions
and
formulate
answers
informed
by
the
model.