Researchers at the University of Waterloo have discovered that the most effective way to prevent disease outbreaks is for the majority of the population in a region to be vaccinated at the same time.
While the timing of vaccinations is not often a topic discussed with the general public, best practices show that getting vaccinated earlier is better. Building on existing mathematical models of epidemics, the study affirms that the timing of vaccinations is critical to their effectiveness. The researchers say that their findings could help manage outbreaks of diseases such as the flu and measles.
This model is referred to as pulse vaccination, where portions of the population are vaccinated together for disease control. It was developed by Kevin Church, a PhD candidate, along with his supervisor Professor Xinzhi, both in Waterloo’s Department of Applied Mathematics.
“If you have a weak vaccine or not enough people get it, what happens is that periods where the infectivity rates are high, meaning you have more people sick and likely to spread the disease, are going to be harder to predict,” Church said.
A paper detailing the modified model, titled “Analysis of a SIR model with pulse vaccination and temporary immunity: Stability, bifurcation and a cylindrical attractor,” authored by Church and Liu of Waterloo’s Faculty of Mathematics, was published in the journal Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications.