For Zoom Link please contact amug@uwaterloo.ca
Speaker
Abba Gumel, School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Arizona State University
Title
Mathematics of malaria transmission dynamics: the renewed quest for eradication
Abstract
Malaria, a deadly disease caused by protozoan Plasmodium parasites, is spread between humans via the bite of infected adult female Anopheles mosquitoes. Over 2.5 billion people live in geographies whose local epidemiology permits transmission of P. falciparum, responsible for most of the life-threatening forms of malaria. The widespread use of insecticide-based interventions, notably indoors residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), over the period 2000-2015, has led to a dramatic reduction of malaria burden in endemic areas, prompting a renewed concerted global effort to eradicate the disease in a decade or two. Unfortunately, such heavy usage has also resulted in widespread resistance (in the malaria vector population) to all the currently available insecticides used in vector control. This lecture is based on using mathematical modeling approaches and rigorous analysis to provide qualitative insight into malaria transmission dynamics and determine if the eradication objective can be achieved using existing vector control resources. The presentation will focus on using a genetic-epidemiology modeling framework to quantify the impact of two of the major challenges facing malaria eradication efforts, namely insecticide resistance and global climate change. The effectiveness of some of the alternative biological (gene editing) methods being proposed to suppress the malaria mosquito population will also be assessed.