Derek J. Koehler


Derek J. Koehler.BS (Wisconsin), PhD (Stanford)

Contact information

Derek Koehler's curriculum vitae (PDF) 

Recipient, Premier's Research Excellence Award

Fellow, Association for Psychological Science

Fellow, American Psychological Association

View my profile on Google scholar or ResearchGate

Research interests

My research investigates the intuitive assessment of uncertainty involved in everyday planning, prediction, and decision making. This research includes the study of how people evaluate evidence when estimating the probability of an uncertain event, how generating scenarios or explanations influences the perceived likelihood of future events, and how current intentions influence self-predictions of future behaviour. In the course of this research, my collaborators and I have asked basketball fans to predict the outcomes of upcoming NBA games, physicians to judge the probability that a patient is suffering from a particular illness, homeowners to predict when they will complete a household project, and students to estimate the probability that they will donate blood at an upcoming donation clinic. Some of my recent research is located at the intersection of psychology and economics, in a field sometimes called behavioural economics.

Recent publications

  • Walker, A., Turpin, M. H., Stolz, J. A., Fugelsang, J., & Koehler, D. (2019). Finding meaning in the clouds: Illusory pattern perception predicts receptivity to pseudo-profound bullshit. Judgment and Decision Making, 14(2), 109-119.
  • Walker, A., Turpin, M. H., Fugelsang, J., & Koehler, D. (2019). Intuition speed as a predictor of choice and confidence in point spread predictions. Judgment and Decision Making, 14(2), 148-155.
  • Pennycook, G., Ross, R. M., Koehler, D. J., & Fugelsang, J. A. (2017). Dunning–Kruger effects in reasoning: Theoretical implications of the failure to recognize incompetence. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 24, 1774-1784.

Edited book


Why people are confused about what experts really think
Ideas 42
UWaterloo Centre for Behavioural Decision Research
Road to Failure is Paved with Good Intentions
New Techniques for Saving More
Are We Wrong to be Over-Optimistic?
Why don't we save more
Writing Wrongs

University of Waterloo

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