Derek J. Koehler

Professor; Cognitive Research Area Head

BS (Wisconsin), PhD (Stanford)

Derek Koehler's curriculum vitae (PDF)

Recipient, Premier's Research Excellence Award

Fellow, Association for Psychological Science

Fellow, American Psychological Association

View my profile on Google scholar or ResearchGate

Research interests

My research investigates the intuitive assessment of uncertainty involved in everyday planning, prediction, and decision making. This research includes the study of how people evaluate evidence when estimating the probability of an uncertain event, how generating scenarios or explanations influences the perceived likelihood of future events, and how current intentions influence self-predictions of future behaviour. In the course of this research, my collaborators and I have asked basketball fans to predict the outcomes of upcoming NBA games, physicians to judge the probability that a patient is suffering from a particular illness, homeowners to predict when they will complete a household project, and students to estimate the probability that they will donate blood at an upcoming donation clinic. Some of my recent research is located at the intersection of psychology and economics, in a field sometimes called behavioural economics.

Recent publications

  • Gretton, J. D., Meyers, E. A., Walker, A. C., Fugelsang, J. A., & Koehler, D. J. (2021). A brief forewarning intervention overcomes negative effects of salient changes in COVID-19 guidance. Judgment and Decision Making, 16(6), 1549-1574.  

  • Walker, A. C., Turpin, M. H., Meyers, E. A., Stolz, J. A., Fugelsang, J. A., & Koehler, D. J. (2021). Controlling the narrative: Euphemistic language affects judgments of actions while avoiding perceptions of dishonesty. Cognition, 211, 104633. 

  • Meyers, E. A., Turpin, M. H., Bialek, M., Fugelsang, J. A., & Koehler, D. J. (2020).  Inducing feelings of ignorance makes people more receptive to expert (economist) opinion.  Judgment and Decision Making, 15, 909-925. 

  • Pennycook, G., Cheyne, J. A., Koehler, D. J., & Fugelsang, J. A. (2020). On the belief that beliefs should change according to evidence: Implications for conspiratorial, moral, paranormal, political, religious, and science beliefs. Judgment and Decision Making, 15(4), 476.

  • Koehler, D. J., & Pennycook, G. (2019).  How the public, and scientists, perceive advancement of knowledge from conflicting study results.  Judgment and Decision Making, 14, 671-682. 

Edited book