Applied Mathematics seminar | Chris Bauch, How Mathematics Can Help Explain Vaccine Scares and Associated Disease Dynamics

MC 5158

Speaker

Chris Bauch, PhD, Associate Professor, University of Guelph, Research Chair in Biomathematics

Title

How Mathematics Can Help Explain Vaccine Scares and Associated Disease Dynamics

Abstract

Mortality due to infectious diseases is declining worldwide, thanks partly to ever-expanding vaccine coverage. However, as infectious diseases become rare and our memory of them fades, vaccine “scares” and other forms of vaccine refusal are beginning to rival accessibility as the primary barrier to disease control and global disease eradication. A significant body of literature couples human behavioural models to disease transmission models in order to address such problems. However, challenges remain, including how to reconcile these models to observed patterns of coupled behaviour-disease dynamics, how to validate the models against empirical data, and how to harness them to assist in the design of disease eradication programs. In this talk I will give an overview of some of my past and current research dedicated to addressing these challenges. This work uses models based on differential equations, network simulations, and game theory, and has been applied to vaccine programs for measles, whooping cough, and smallpox.