When foreign powers try to interfere with the politics of another country by spreading strategic disinformation, there is no real effect on policies or the balance of power in the targeted country, according to research by Professor Alexander Lanoszka.
In a recently published article, he investigated whether foreign powers such as Russia and China can influence an election and political outcomes by spreading disinformation.
Canada’s federal government has warned of potential interference from Russia during the upcoming election. But, according to Lanoszka, voters in Canada and other democracies should not be too concerned that attempted interference would actually influence an election or other political outcomes.
“Great
powers
like
Russia
will
of
course
push
narratives
about
its
foreign
relations
that
are
not
only
self-serving,
but
will
also
misrepresent
true
intentions,
especially
if
they
are
up
to
no
good,”
said
Lanoszka.
The
study
defined
disinformation
as
a
systematic
government
effort
aimed
at
misleading
a
particular
audience
–
whether
a
government
or
key
members
of
society
–
in
order
to
influence
the
political
process.
His paper cites three key obstacles that stand in the way of campaigns of disinformation. The first is a fundamental skepticism within potentially targeted countries when an adversary broadcasts information; the second is the prevalence of deeply ingrained identifies and political attitudes among targeted political elites and ordinary citizens; and third is the countermeasures that a targeted country can enact — such as the Canadian government’s forewarning of potential election interference.
Lanoszka points to a 2017 poll that found 59 per cent of Canadians have unfavourable views of Russia, which is well above the global median of 40 per cent. Furthermore, he points out that all three of Canada’s leading parties have made statements condemning Russian aggression.
“Since Russia suffers a deficit of trust already with Canadian voters, any information spread by Russia that implicates our election outcome would be viewed with significant suspicion by most Canadian voters,” said Lanoszka.
As well, he says a large body of political science research suggests that voters tend to process new information in light of firmly entrenched prejudices and assumptions. This is especially clear in the U.S., where, for example, information on climate change or economics is viewed primarily according to Democratic or Republican allegiances.
“The growing evidence about disinformation is that its effects have largely been limited to a small segment of voters, who likely would have supported extremist parties, anyway.”
In the research paper, Lanoszka focuses on the case of disinformation in the Russian campaign against the Baltic states, including the 2014 annexation of Crimea. He says evidence in this case, and in other examples of disinformation, strongly suggests that its intended strategic effects of political interference are exaggerated.
Disinformation in Internation Politics is published in the European Journal of International Security.
This news item is adapted from the original University of Waterloo media release.