Decarbonizing Transportation: Policy Instruments and Impacts with Dr. Mark Purdon

Modeling the Effect of Different Policy Mixes in the Transportation Sector on Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions and Transportation Fuel Mixes

This seminar presents the preliminary results from a techno-economic modeling exercise to assess the effects of different policy instruments and their combination on efforts to decarbonize the transportation sector in Quebec and Ontario. It is increasingly recognized that how various policy instruments are combined has effects both in terms of policy outcomes (such as emission reductions) but also political acceptability. Using the North American TIMES Energy Model (NATEM) developed by ESMIA, the researchers gauged effects on total emissions, emissions from the transport sector alone as transportation sector fuel mix. Six scenarios were modeled through 2030 in order to gauge the independent effects of five individual policy instruments as well as their combination. Policy instruments included leading flexible regulations in the transportation sector such as provincial Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandates, federal Clean Fuel Regulations and Vehicle Emission Standards as well as carbon pricing. Two carbon pricing instruments were modeled, including the California-Quebec carbon market in Quebec as well as the Canadian federal carbon tax. In addition, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario that did not include any of the policy instruments was modeled as reference scenario for comparative purposes. As transportation is amongst the largest sources of emissions in Canada, results are important for anticipating the degree to which Canada will be able to respect its 2030 emission reduction targets under the Paris Agreement as well as responding to debates about the impacts of different types of carbon pricing instruments.